Dynasty League - Hitting Preview

The expansion draft was a success. Thanks to Brian & Dan for having the balls on wanting to take on new teams without being able to have one of the big stars on their team. Both teams are pretty solid, I will go over my pre-draft odds on who I think has the best chances of winning it all this year.

This is based on 2010 ESPN Projections. Obviously, I do not agree with them all, but I think it is at least a pretty good guesstimate on some of these players.

The expansion teams are based on 10 players, not 8, and considering that I think they both have a very good roster, as the rest of our averages will drop no doubt as the talent has thinned out a bit.

Hitting

AVG
KungFuPandas - .303
Team Hanson - .295
Duffs - .294
Xtreme Dynasty - .288
Beantown Brawlers - .287
North Country United - .284
Montreal Expos - .283
J-Fraud - .283
Team Wood - .282
CT Crush - .281
Stonehenge - .275

OBP
KungFuPandas - .373
Duffs - .370
Xtreme Dynasty - .369
Team Hanson - .368
Beantown Brawlers - .365
North Country United - .362
Montreal Expos - .358
CT Crush - .358
Stonehenge - .350
Team Wood - .348
J-Fraud - .348

Runs
KungFuPandas - 93.5
Team Hanson - 93
Duffs - 92.3
Beantown Brawlers - 90.6
J-Fraud - 90.3
Xtreme Dynasty - 90
Stonehenge - 86.6
Montreal Expos - 85.4
Team Wood - 84.7
North Country United - 83.7
CT Crush - 83.7


HR
Team Hanson - 29.3
KungFuPandas - 27.6
Beantown Brawlers - 25.1
Stonehenge - 24.6
Team Wood - 24.1
CT Crush - 23.5
Duffs - 22.7
Xtreme Dynasty - 22.2
Montreal Expos - 21.7
J-Fraud - 21.2
North Country United - 15.75

RBI
Team Hanson 96.5
KungFuPandas - 94.1
Stonehenge - 89.8
Beantown Brawlers - 88.7
CT Crush - 87.2
Team Wood - 86.9
Xtreme Dynasty - 86.3
Duffs - 86.2
Montreal Expos - 82.1
J-Fraud - 78.7
North Country United - 70.6


SB
North Country United - 20.6
J-Fraud - 19.3
Montreal Expos - 15.1
Team Hanson - 14.6
KungFuPandas - 14.6
Team Wood - 14
CT Crush - 13.2
Xtreme Dynasty - 12.5
Beantown Brawlers - 11.1
Duffs - 10.1
Stonehenge - 8.6


TB
KungFuPandas - 300.5
Team Hanson - 296.2
Beantown Brawlers - 280.5
Stonehenge - 269.6
Team Wood - 269.1
Duffs - 268.5
CT Crush - 262.2
J-Fraud - 262.1
Xtreme Dynasty - 261.2
North Country United - 235.7
Montreal Expos - 235.1


K
Xtreme Dynasty - 91
North Country United - 99.1
Beantown Brawlers - 103
Montreal Expos - 103
Duffs - 106.6
KungFuPandas - 109.7
Team Wood - 111.9
CT Crush - 112.1
J-Fraud - 112.6
Stonehenge - 114.6
Team Hanson - 116.1


Of course these numbers are also skewed a bit because some people have elected to keep players from power positions like 1b. Those teams will have to fill out their roster which will drop their numbers. (C,SS for example are two very thin positions)


The favorite is hands down KungFuPandas who is tops in most categories, but Jamie might have made a costly error in freezing Pablo Sandoval over Carl Crawford. Crawford is in his final year of his six year deal with the Rays. Crawford could be a hot commodity around the trade deadline. I think Crawford will have a monster season, but when you have Pujols, Fielder & Kemp you can afford to keep your favorite player, so I really don't blame him for the move. Robinson Cano is underrated and is one of the best fantasy second basemen. I am not too high on Mark Reynolds because of his poor avg and high strikeouts. I don't think we see 20 SB's this year, maybe 15. He could challenge for the homerun title though.

The team with the most question marks this year coming in is Xtreme Dynasty. Erase last season, and I ended up with 3 of the top 9 players drafted. Only Mark Texeira is a clear cut 1st rounder this year though. David Wright had respectable numbers .307/.390 & 27 SB's but 10 homeruns and a huge increase in strikeouts is definitely a concern moving into this year. I think a lot of Wright's problems last year were due to the fact that he had no one in the lineup last year. Reyes,Delgado,Beltran all missed a ton of games last year. The Mets added Jason Bay to bolster their lineup, and if the Mets stay healthy I think Wright could be in for a huge year. They also lowered the height of the fence in center for this year. After the biggest blockbuster trade of the year, Jose Reyes disappointed big time as he missed the rest of the season with a leg injury. If Reyes rebounds he could be a top 3 SS again. Carlos Beltran's 25/25 seasons are probably over with bad knees, but no doubt he can swing a bat. Had a career year last season before he got hurt. (.325/.415) Another Carlos who had injury problems last year was Carlos Quentin. Quentin was bothered by a nagging plantar fasciitis injury last season, and never really recovered fully. Can Quentin regain his MVP type form from 2008 where he was a 36/100/100 player in 130 games. The last question mark is Russell Martin. Martin was one of the top rated catchers going into the league last year, mainly due to the rare 20 steal potential from the catcher position. He finished the year with 11, and will probably be near that mark this season. Martin has a good hitters eye, and the Dodgers lineup is loaded so he still should be near the top in runs by a catcher this season.

Beantown Brawlers had a pretty disappointing season. He didn't pull the trigger on a couple of trade offers, and the Jorge Cantu deal might have been the worst deal of the year. Bill made a couple of questionable freeze picks this year. Curtis Granderson over Ben Zobrist, and Denard Span over Nelson Cruz. Definitely a toss up either way. Ian Kinsler rumored to be moving down in the lineup this year, I think could possibly hurt his fantasy value. Kinsler is no Chase Utley, and since he thinks he is a power hitter his average took a nose dive last year. If Adrian Gonzalez can hit 40 homers a year playing in Petco, imagine what he could do playing in a hitters park? Gonzalez had 20 Hrs in the first 2 months of the season last year, but only had 20 hrs in the final 4 months. The power went down, but after the all-star break Gonzalez was great. (.311/.432) If/when Gonzalez gets moved he could be an elite 1st basemen. Bill got his wish last year with Matt Holliday getting moved, so maybe he strikes lightning in a bottle twice. Two young players I really like Gordon Beckham & Billy Butler give Beantown some nice youth.

The defending champs North Country United will need to rely on his pitching once again if he wants to repeat this season. Pitching > Hitting usually is not the right recipe to success, but it worked last season. We will see how it pans out this year. Dealing Mark Texeira back to Xtreme Dynasty for Aaron Hill & Jayson Werth was a great move for both teams. Andrew got 2 great players for 1 elite player. Jacoby Ellsbury is the backbone of this team. He could win SB's by himself some weaks, in fact NCU's strength is with Stolen Bases. Jason Bay arguably has a better lineup in front of him this year, and should be a RBI machine this year. If Andrew can find this years Pablo Sandoval in the draft, he could be a force to be reckoned with this year.

J-Fraud made a great deal with KungFuPandas at the end of last season getting Grady Sizemore. Sizemore may not be first round material anymore, but he is still good for 20/20, 25/25 this season. Sizemore will K, but his team is kind of built this way. Ryan Howard hits almost 50 pts higher after the all-star break over his career and that is huge. Give me a team full of 2nd half studs any day of the week. That is one reason why I hate Alfonso Soriano. Soriano had such a great start last season, and then just fell off the face of the earth. I guess you almost have to keep him looking at J-Fraud's roster, but put a fork in him. I am a big fan of Julio Borbon who will be battling for lead off duties in Texas this year. Borbon won't hit .312 like he did last year, but he could be a good come from nowhere guy like Michael Bourn was last year.

The Montreal Expos definitely have 1b/OF covered heading into the year. Kendry Morales was bounced around among a few teams last year, before finding a home on CT Crush. Morales is definitely a steal, and in my opinion should have been a clear cut keeper. Carl Crawford as mentioned above is in a contract year and should be great. If Crawford does get traded, his steals could decrease. We all know Tampa likes to run. Adam Jones was great last year in the first half of the season. He has 5 tool potential for sure and is only 24 years old. I am a big Shane Victorino fan. I was sad to see him go. The Phillies lineup is loaded, so Victorino should have another big year. Brian rounded out his team with some veterans like Manny Ramirez & Lance Berkman. Although towards the tail end of their career, they both should be very productive next year.

If you need a 2B come see Team Wood who has three of the top 7-8 2nd basemen. Brandon Phillips doesn't walk alot and will not hit .300, but you get consistency with him. Pencil him in for 20/20 to start the season, and if the rest of the young Reds bats come around he could be in for a big season. Nobody believed in Ben Zobrist last year, but guess what he finished tied for 3rd in the American League in .OPS last season. Only Joe Mauer & Kevin Youkilis were better. The main question is, is he a one year wonder? Will Josh Hamilton ever play a full season again? He is definitely worth a gamble. Was there any hotter hitter in the 2nd half then Troy Tulowitzki last year? .344 avg, and a five tool player to an expansion team. It was a very tough decision for Kevin to make for sure. Chris Davis & Nelson Cruz gives Team Wood some good pop especially August in Arlington. Will Davis find a home in the bigs? He better get his act together in the first half, as Justin Smoak is waiting for the midseason callup.

If you thought Jamie had a dilemma with his keepers, Team Hanson had an even tougher one. Losing Troy Tulowitzki was not easy, but I think Kevin made the right choices. A-rod is a little bit older then Tulo, but his numbers are just so much better. That definitely would have been a tough pill to swallow seeing him blow up somewhere else. This team also has my #1 & #2 ranked OF's for dynasty Ryan Braun & Justin Upton. Another player I love is Joey Votto of the Reds. I really believe this is going to be Vottos breakout season, where he pushes that 2nd tier of first basemen. His pitching is pretty mediocre, but if he can find the next Greinke like Jamie did, Kevin could legitimately win it all.

Jason Bartlett first wave keeper? Well, at least thats what Rays fan CT Crush thought when he protected him over a young Kendry Morales. The move still shocks me. Yes, Bartlett batted .320 last year and swiped 30 bases. He had career highs in every offensive stat, but I definitely do not see a repeat year. Just my opinion, and a Rays fan definitely knows more than I do about his team. I think keeping Morales would have been the better move, and more than likely 30 year old Bartlett doesn't get drafted and you get to keep him anyways. Justin Morneau had a miserable 2nd half last year, but he should be solid batting in the middle of a very good Twins lineup. Jay Bruce has 40 HR potential, I just don't think his average will be there yet. It is definitely a plus having a top notch catcher on your team. McCann should put up solid numbers again this year. Can we have the 2007 BJ Upton back please? The one who looked like was going to be a 5 tool player for the next 10 years. Upton has only hit 20 HR's combined in the past 2 years, and his average has dropped about 30 pts per season. Hopefully he rebounds for the Crush this year. There is some good young talent on this team. They might not be ready to make a push for it all this year, but future looks bright.



It is nice having the best player at a particular position, it is even nicer when you have 2 players, and even better when those 2 players play at shallow positions like C & 2B. Duffs has Joe Mauer & Chase Utley. Not too shabby at all. To make things even better, Duffs has cornered the market on catchers by a good late season trade with the Pandas to get Matt Wieters. Wieters holds a lot of value, as he is one of the best young talents in the league.
Speaking of young talent, the Bucs actually have some youngsters, Pedro Alvarez in the minors and OF Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen could be a 20/40 guy. Carlos Gonzalez is another nice young player for the Duffs. Kevin Youkilis & Derrek Lee are both vets who should have great numbers again batting in the middle of their respective teams lineups. Corey Hart was a 20/20 player, if he can get back to that level and these young guys pan out like they should. Duffs should have one of the better offensive teams in this league.

Marv needs a lot of help this season to get out of the cellar. He has a solid initial 4 nucleus with Markakis, Rollins, Ramirez & Pena. Jimmy Rollins just killed Marv last year in the first half. .229 at the all-star break, but Rollins did rebound nicely down the stretch. Rollins could once again be in the upper echelon of short stops. Aramis Ramirez was injured for most of the year as well, another thing that killed Marv. A healthy Ramirez and you are looking at a .300 30/100 type of player. One thing Marv has plenty of is strikeouts. Carlos Pena & Dan Uggla will both strikeout a ton. Luckily they both should be good for a lot of homers as well. With the 3rd pick in the draft there will definitely be some good players to help immediately.

Little Honus Wagners to be added once final keeper is made.