Will Andrew repeat this year? Will Marc receive 100 offers for Hanley Ramirez? Will either expansion team make the playoffs? Will Josh make more bad trades? Will Bill complain about those trades? Will Marv actually make a pick? The odds on some of these are good, and some not so good. Below are odds on who I think has the best chance of winning it all.
3-1
Kung Fu Pandas are the favorite to win it all this season. It was obvious that Jamie had a plan come draft day, and that was to draft best player available who will help out this season regardless of the players age. That was a small shocker considering this is the same guy who was infatuated with date of birth's last year. Jamie has the best lineup on paper, I don't think this can be argued.
Strength
I am not going to go over position or player strengths here, I am going to go over Jamie's #1 strength and that is trading. Jamie knows when to make a move, and more importantly what owners to target in a trade. Let's just say with all of the trading that Jamie made last year, I did not receive 1 offer from him. Jamie has already started off 2010 with a bang going back to old trading buddy Josh and grabbing Matt Wieters who many say will be a top 3 fantasy catcher for the next 10+ years. Dustin Ackley is one of the top prospects in baseball, and Wandy Rodriguez definitely helps Josh's inept pitching staff, but if he shopped Wieters around, I am 100% positive he could have received a better deal. I set the over/under at 6 for deals with Josh & Bruce this year. If it goes over, I think Jamie will have an even better chance to win it all. The Jones for Reynolds deal was a great one too. I am not a Reynolds fan at all.
Weakness
There really is no glaring weakness. Jamie's draft strategy could come back and bite him in the ass. Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre & Andy Pettitte are all pretty old and could break down this season. Also as noted in previous blog 55% of the top 20 starting pitchers didn't live up to expectations either through poor performance or because of injury. I think Jamie failed to try and grab the next Adam Wainwright or Zack Greinke in this draft, electing to go with proven vets instead. It was definitely a safe approach.
9-2
I think I (Xtreme Dynasty) have the second best chance to win it all this year. If you look at some of the other contending teams, you don't see a lot of balance. I think I did a fairly good job in building my team this offseason. My team is full of question marks, but isn't everyones really?
Strength
I think my strength is within my depth and my young players. Jason Heyward & Alcides Escobar were two huge minor league pickups I made last year and I think they will be battling it out this year for NL ROY honors. Everyone knows about Heyward but Escobar if he can get in the #1 or #2 slot in the Brewers offense this season, he could score a ton of runs. My pitching staff I think is going to have a breakout season. My pair of Twins pitchers Kevin Slowey & Scott Baker (minus last start) have looked great this spring. I think Cole Hamels & Chad Billingsley both have rebound years.
Weakness
My achilles heel last year was injuries, and it looks like 2010 is starting out the same way with 5 guys slated for the DL to open up the year. I think if I stay healthy I can challenge anyone this season. My other problem I had last year was not having enough patience with people. I dropped Miguel Tejada early on in the season and he ended up having a great year. I also dropped Kendry Morales as well, and this was because of my #1 weakness and that was my strategy. Spamming innings are great against the right opponent, the one that you have a distinct disadvantage against, but is there any need to spam against a team who you have far better players then? It doesn't make sense, and that is how I ended up missing out on some players like Morales.
5-1
Little Honus Wagners comes in third here. I really liked Marc's draft this year as he drafted a bunch of players right when I was ready to draft them like Justin Masterson, Nick Swisher (dual-eligibilty)& Scott Sizemore.
Strength
Marc's strength is definitely his pitching staff. He is kind of the opposite of Kevin. Marc's lineup is solid, but nowhere near as dangerous as it was last year in my opinion. 4 solid veteran closers who shouldn't lose their job unless injured is very nice. I like Kershaw & Jimenez alot in dynasty setting.
Weakness
I think Marc's weakness was not being more active on the WW and through trading last year. I know there was like 10 guys that were all pretty much the same on the wire last year, but take a shot on one of them, Also if Jamie was telling the truth, then it definitely would have been tough to turn down a Fielder/Greinke/Reynolds for Hanley/Gonzo/whoever deal. It was something like that, remember talking about it last year.
11-2
If we could actually place a wager on someone for real, I would put some cash on Team Hanson. Kevin was definitely hit hard with the injury bug last year, probably even harder then I was. He probably would have struggled with the 45 inning minimum last year.
Strength
There is no doubt Kevin's strength is with his lineup. I think he has one of the best lineups in the game. He has 3 players who would be in the top 10 of a new dynasty draft. (Upton,Braun & Cabrera) A-rod is going to put up MVP numbers until he retires. Joey Votto is one of my favorite up and comers, and I think he could break into that top 5 area for first basemen this year. I was targeting Colby Rasmus this year, and Kevin nabbed him from me. He could surplant Ludwick and move into the 5th spot in lineup this year. This lineup is just nasty.
Weakness
Kevin's weakness is not his pitching, although it was last year. Peavy, and hopefully Liriano pull through for him this year. Kevin's weakness last year besides the injury bug was that he just didn't seem to make enough moves during the year, maybe it had something to do with the 100 websites he has, or maybe just too many leagues, and just lost interest when his team was getting hurt. If Kevin is active this year, I think he could be the dark horse to win it all. Just judging from other leagues though that we are in together, he is more of a stand by your draft kind of guy then a go out and make a move guy.
6-1
Seems like pretty high odds for the defending champs North Country United. Pitching definitely won Andrew the championship last year, but pitching can only get you so far.
Strength
This is pretty clear cut with Andrew. His strength is his pitching. He has 3 great top notch starters in Sabathia, Santana & Lester. His bullpen is very deep, and he has a few young pitchers who could be sleepers this year.
Weakness
The weakness is definitely the bats. His top 4 keepers of Jayson Werth, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hill & Jason Bay aren't exactly Pujols,Fielder,KFP & Kemp. Ellsbury is the only player of the bunch i would rank in my top 20 position players. I loved the picks of Big Papi & Todd Helton in the draft this year, but I don't think it is enough to compete with some of the top teams. Andrew will need to have a lights out pitching week to be successful in the playoffs again this year.
10-1
The Beantown Brawlers come in at 10-1. I see a top 5, and then I see a race for the 6th seed. I was not a big fan of some of the moves Bill made this offseason. His expansion keepers, Granderson over Zobrist, Span over Cruz, and some of the draft choices he made.
Strength
Bill doesn't think he can compete, but looking at his team it is very good. Lincecum, Beckett & Hanson are 3 great top of the line starters. Jonathan Broxton is one of the best young closers in baseball. His lineup is filled with some young budding stars like Gordon Beckham & Billy Butler. If Bill can fix his weakness this year, he could be a contender.
Weakness
Bill's weakness last year was definitely holding on to players too long, and waiting too long for guys on the waiver wire. Bill missed out on a ton of players last year because he was waiting for someone to break out of a funk. I think also he wasn't used to this type of scoring, and was familiar with a certain style of owners which this league clearly didn't have. This league was filled with mostly new fantasy baseball players and those guys jumped more often on players then Bill was used to.
I also think he over values some of his players. I fall victim to this sometimes in football, and really makes other owners think if you really like someone this much and think of him that much, why would you shop him?
21-2
I actually like both of the expansion teams next, but rate Montreal Expos a tad higher then Croatia. I think Brian H. had a very solid draft. He has a lot of young talent, but also a lot of vets who will give him a shot at the playoffs this year.
Strength
It is tough to judge a new owner on strengths without being in a league with them before, but from what I have seen from Brian in expansion draft and regular draft I think he will be a tough owner for years to come. Top to bottom Brian's lineup is pretty good. He has speed, power and a fairly decent average. I think Carl Crawford is going to put up MVP type numbers this year.
Weakness
It is not as weak as some others pitching staff, but when Brian struggles this year it will be with his pitching. Ricky Nolasco is really his only true ace. What is nice about the team is that he has a lot of breakout candidate type players like Romero, Buchholz, Sherzer & Sanchez...not to mention Aroldis Chapman who will probably be up this summer. Leo Nunez is his only true closer, and yikes.
11-1
This one was a little tough to figure out. I like Croatia's roster a bit more then Expos, but I am not sure what type of owner Brian B. is going to be. This is his first go at fantasy baseball I guess in a while.
Strength
I think Brian's lineup is actually his strength. 7 players projected at double digit steals, and 11 players projected over 20 HR's. compare that to KFP who has only 10 players projected over 20 HR's or Kevin's team who only has 8 players projected over 20 HR's.
Weakness
The lack of good starting pitching really hurts Brian's chances this year. He has some very good relievers that he could potentially move and get some good starting pitchers, but until then I don't think he has enough to really compete. Also, the new factor might hurt him this year, he might be victim to getting burned in a couple of deals.
16-1
J-Fraud clearly lost his identity. Last year his offense put up some huge numbers. This year I think it will struggle.
Strength
There are solid building blocks in place, but I think J-Fraud definitely needs to make some moves this year. Roy Halladay is my pick for NL Cy Young. John Lackey, Cliff Lee & AJ Burnett round out a pretty strong top 4. I think Halladay will be a good trade piece come deadline time if J-Fraud finds himself out of it. He definitely isn't afraid to deal which can be a good thing.
Weakness
It is definitely the identity thing. He went from HR/RBI/TB team to pretty much just strong at SB's. He has a crazy amount of stolen bases on his team and only 6 players who project for more than 20 hrs. That really isn't going to cut it on most weeks. If you need steals, look no further as there are plenty of players on this team who should be made available.
20-1
CT Crush falls in here at 15-1. I like bits and pieces of Bruce's team but as a whole don't think he has enough this season to compete. Plenty of young players in pipeline though which is nice.
Strength
LOL, one strength Bruce has is his buddy Jamie. Jamie really pitched in and gave Bruce some solid advice on some players last year down the stretch, some advice that some of the other owners
Weakness
This is a pretty easy one for me, and that is way too many Rays on his team. There is one thing to be a fan and have players on your team that you like, but he has gone overboard here. 5 Ray pitchers going against the best division of bats in baseball hands down. That isn't a recipe for success.
40-1
Are you shocked that I don't have Stonehenge last? Marv definitely had his share of injuries and bad luck last year, hopefully it won't bite him in the ass again this year.
Strength
Unfortunately I really don't see too many strengths with his lineup. I just think Duffs weakness outweighs Marv's hence the rating. I like Markakis a lot. I think he will develop a little more power this year. I think Rollins is underrated going into this year. Shin-Soo Choo is one of those guys who people forget about, but I like him this year.
Weakness
Marv's big weakness last year was that he basically gave up and quit paying attention to his team. Instead of taking constructive criticism and good suggestions from one owner, he elected to ignore it and not build for the future. I think Marv got caught up in seasonal league mentality and not dynasty league. How active will Marv be this year is the big question. If the draft is the blue print then I don't expect Marv to be a contender this year. I hope he proves me and everyone else wrong though.
Any O's fan shouldn't be too happy with this pic. LOL
50-1
The Duffs have the worst odds to win it all this year in my opinion, and not because of the talent.
Strength
Duffs actually has a lot of talent on his team. The #1 catcher Joe Mauer, the #1 2nd basemen Chase Utley. He has some young talent like Andrew McCutchen & Carlos Gonzalez. If this were a roto league and we couldn't make roster moves, I think Josh would have a middle of the pack team, unfortunately this isn't.
Weakness
The main weakness with Josh, and the same issue J-Fraud will have this year is not having a clear identity. The trades he made last year were absolutely horrible if you look at it from a whole. Lets look at some of the players Josh had on his team last year that he currently doesn't have now. Grady Sizemore traded for Corey Hart & Melky Cabrera. Absolutely brutal deal. Cole Hamels, he received Javier Vazquez in a trade for him, but then traded Vazquez later. Joakim Soria was drafted by Duffs. I forgot about this deal. Wish I remember the details on this one, but I remember at the time it wasn't great. Ricky Nolasco might have also been involved in that deal with Soria, because Jamie got them both in trade last year. Nolasco of course was pretty bad at times last year, but a case of giving up on a player too soon, just like he did with Hamels & Sizemore. Adam Wainwright was on Duffs team as well. Josh wanted to help his ERA out, so he traded him for Zach Duke who at the time was pitching real well, then after the deal was made, he decided he wanted more strikeout guys weird. Michael Young, another guy sent over to KFP in trade. Huston Street, was released by Josh, and then I picked him up. Look at all that talent that left Duffs team, and look at the current state of his team now. He then just lost Matt Wieters this year who I mentioned above by many will be top catcher in baseball for next 10+ years. Just how valuable Matt Wieters was last year? He was drafted with the 2nd pick in the 7th round, and that is with no big league experience. This year in a new dynasty league, i bet ya he is taken before the 5th round. Shopping around before making a deal is definitely a good idea, not just for Josh, but for anyone who is making a deal. Josh's draft minus the trade this year was pretty good, and he does have a good nucleus of young players, but until he gets those trades in check, I can't seriously consider him a player in this league. Maybe he will get lucky on a few this year, who knows. I do gotta give him some credit for at least trying though.
No comments:
Post a Comment